Your argument based on statistics, which I do not dispute, does not hold up to the reality of the situation. I will stick to my opinion that HDY people thought the chance for success was higher than reported. I think there may be room for misinterpreting some of the optimistic statements made by Ray. But his actions verify my interpretation IMO. No one in their right mind makes a twelve million dollar bet on an outcome with a probability of only 30%. An out with a full refund would have been the right move or no commitment given at all with only a 30% chance of a successful outcome. I stand by my opinion, they thought the chance was much higher than 30%. You are entitled to think what you want. A full refund could change my mind.
That said I still really like the fact that Ray went for it. The company would truly have been made with a commercial discovery. It was necessary to drill, things happen, in the long run this will only be a hole in the road if we find commercial oil.
Now the main point I was trying to make was there will be a loooooong delay before any new developments materialize. I hope Ray and company can surprise us.