Killerbee2,

Your argument  based on statistics,  which I do not dispute,  does not hold up to the reality of the situation.   I will stick to my opinion that HDY people thought the chance for success was higher than reported.  I think there may be room for misinterpreting some of the optimistic statements made by Ray.  But  his actions verify my interpretation IMO.  No one in their right mind makes a twelve million dollar bet on an outcome with a probability of only 30%.  An out with a full refund would have been the right move or no commitment given at all with only a 30% chance of a successful outcome.  I stand by my opinion,  they thought the chance was much higher than 30%.   You are entitled to think what you want.  A full refund could change my mind. 

 

That said I still really like the fact that Ray went for it.  The company would truly have been made with a commercial discovery.  It was necessary to drill,  things happen,  in the long run this will only be a hole in the road if we find commercial oil.

 

 Now  the main point I was trying to make was there will be a loooooong delay before any new developments materialize.  I hope Ray and company can surprise us.