by Rotair69


CIBC update on Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)

http://investorvillage.com/uploads/51958/files/ResearchBTE.pdf

Baytex Energy Corp.
Q4 In Line; Upgrading On Thermal Success And Protection Against Differentials


 Baytex reported Q4 and year-end results yesterday that were in line with
expectations. Q4 production of 53,054 Boe/d was within 1% of both our
forecast and consensus, while CFPS of $1.39 was within 1% of our estimate
and 2% above consensus.


 The company also reported healthy reserves, with proved reserves
increasing 12% Y/Y, 2P reserves increasing 10% Y/Y, and replacing 164%
of production with reserves found through the drill bit. We calculate a cash
flow netback of 2.4x for Baytex.


 Of note, Baytex's first commercial cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) project
has yielded encouraging initial results. We would also highlight that pricing
on approximately 40% of the company's heavy oil volumes is currently
protected by hedging and rail transportation initiatives.


 As of 3/15, we are upgrading our rating to Sector Outperformer (from
Sector Performer) and increasing our price target to $67 (from $66). Our
price target is based on a premium 1.1x target multiple to our Risked NAV
of (versus the group average multiple of 1.0x).