Re: just to show you the hate for energy
BEB, you could easily be right with your ideas. Mine are just guesses based on what I think and hope are objective observations. I am really surprised to see shale CL already surpassing 1 mbpd in such a short time. Infrastructure is a problem but I think shale CL's growth rate stays very high on a growing base of production. Of course we have normal decline rates globally for CL.
I do think the US is way ahead of the world in both shale CL and NG. Our energy companies should be able to exploit this on a global basis.
The future is interesting. The problem with commodities and especially commodity stocks is the massive whipping they take if the market perceives marginal demand to be falling. Since prices are set at the margin there is some basis for this but frequently the market gets the "fact" the marginal demand will slow wrong. Those are the buying ops.