KT:
Thanks for the detailed report on PRYing Canaccord's Value from the numbers...
Another way to guesstimate this company is to look at the guesstimated, estimated, maybe, quite possibly and most likely will be recoverable reserves.
| Company Gross Contingent Oil Resource Estimates |
| Category |
Discovered Oil
Initially in place
(DOIIP) (1)(2)
(MMbbl) |
Discovered
Ultimate
Recoverable
Oil (3)
(MMbbl) |
Ultimate
Reserves (4)
(MMbbl) |
Contingent Oil
Resources (5)
(MMbbl) |
| Low Estimate (C1) (6) |
584 |
42.5 |
6.3 |
36.2 |
| Best Estimate (C2) (6) |
584 |
76.6 |
9.1 |
67.5 |
| High Estimate (C3) (6) |
584 |
121.9 |
11.5 |
110.4 |
Using the 76.6 mm bbls and roughly 200 mm shares outstanding gives a nominal $7-8/share w/o adjusting for debt and using $20/bbl in the ground. My take is that debt would deduct some 25 cents a share, but with this order of magnitude accounting who is going to quibble.
PRY has upside, especially with waterflood rearing its head.
Some say the valuation is rich, but like CEN, it is all about the potential reserves in the ground rather than details on cashflow and other accounting tricks that are best left to BIG companies and bean counters rather than speculative juniors with upside leverage.
jwall
