Ok, I lied.
It was my intention to add TOL or BXE
next, but somehow I got off on a Coastal tangent and recognizing that
it isn't really a 1) a junior, 2) a domestic play, or 3) subject to
north american pricing, some of you may own it or follow it, so I while I
was researching it, I decided to input it into the spreadsheet.
Also, several new columns have been added:
1) a current
price to EV calculation to measure the premium or discount the company
is currently trading at relative to Enterprise value (thanks to
2) a Proved reserves column in the reserves section to go with the 2P and Adjusted 2P figures
3) an EV to 1P measurement
A quick explanation on the shading of cells in the Reserves section.
If a cell's value is less than the average of the Cutpick/MEL transactions that gets a BLUE shade. That is good.
If a cell's value is less than the lowest value in the Cutpick/MEL transaction, that cell gets a GREEN shade. That is even better.
In my world that is better, in the current market it doesn't seem to matter.
I shaded the CEN production and
reserves cells also, but recognize that comparing offshore oil coming
from Thailand or Vietnam to two domestic Canadian light oil and gas
acquisitions is not the world's best comparison.
Yet another example of how difficult
this market is is CEN. They've doubled production in the last year and
discovered a major, major oil find. Their guidance for 2012 average
production is 25k boepd, a 117% increase over 2011. Their latest quarter
netbacks were $78 per barrel! They are printing money
like a central bank. They get global pricing for their oil & gas.
How could it get any better than that? Yet for all this exceptional
execution in the last two weeks CEN has lost 26% of it's value. Also
down 40% over the last 2 months. No favor goes unpunished.