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Msg  79448 of 114813  at  8/6/2011 8:05:52 AM  by

bbbeijing


 In response to msg 79447 by  sophocles
ignore topicview thread,  thread start

Re: S&P Downgrade - what impact on the markets ...

 
amstocks, sophocles,
 
I think you are overdoing your analysis a bit. There's plenty of major news to explain dramatic action in the markets, so no need to look for conspiricies here IMHO.
 
On Thursday, the main news of Italian & Spanish markets unsettling European stock-markets across the board, should have been sufficient news. Euro equity markets were down over 3% on average..(!)
When I saw this before the start of trading in NY, my intuitive reaction was to sell. Similar reactions were posted on this board by others.
 
Though largely instinctively, I sold part of my shares at the open based on three rational factors:
 
1) the global debt problem entering a climax phase.
Europe just being the trigger. The European situation is bad enough to have major implications around the world. Contagion if continued will hurt the US, Japan and other debtor nations as much as it will hurt Europe. Barely two weeks after reaching a framework for avoiding European melt-down, it seems they'll have to start all-over;
 
2) next chapter competitive currency debasement.
Evidence of countries acting unilaterally in panic, e.g. Switzerland, Japan reducing their interest rates;
 
3) the US political grid-lock and denial of grim debt reality.
It lead to a universally rejected debt deal (disaster..), that IMO had not (and still has not) been fully discounted in the market place. 
 
Until there is a temporary  solution for 1-3, read a new G10 summit in which they hammer out the next coordinated moves kicking the can further down the road, there will be fear & chaos in the markets..
 
 
With the PPT still propping up markets, the insider news at home is easiest to counter...
So PPT likely was as much forewarned about the S&P action as anybody...
 
Rgds, bbb


 
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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
79449 Re: S&P Downgrade - what impact on the markets ... bbbeijing 13 8/6/2011 8:18:40 AM


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