By Alan Rawand — ekurd.net
It was just few days ago that the Turkish intelligence MIT revealed that David Petraeus, director of CIA has officially recommended Receb Tayyip Erdogan on 12 March in Ankara to express Turkey approval on Kurdish independent state in Iraq's Kurdistan region KR.
This is a very interesting twist and one would think, why all of a sudden USA supports a Kurdish state!. There would be ground breaking factors for a superpower country like US to officially urge Turkey so that it can accept and recognize such a state.
The Turks are well aware of the status of Kurds in Syria who might be getting some sort of autonomy after the current regime falls, and apparently Turkey has lately introduced an initiative with pro-Kurdish BDP party to solve the Kurdish issue but the content of this initiative still remains uncertain, so it is quite possible that Turkey will accept this state, in fact an article by Turkish Todayszaman close to Erdogan few months ago published "if a Kurdish state was born in northern Iraq, Turkey has no choice but to recognize it".
In the report which was revealed few days by MIT, apparently the CIA director also advised the Turkish PM of the benefits Turkey would gain, which is the oil reserves of Kirkuk and Parts of Mosul's disputed territories currently under KRG’s jurisdictions . And indeed Turkey is looking for more economic growth in the future, thus it needs natural resources to boost this economic growth, and Kurdistan Regional Government KRG happens to be the closest option for Turkey.
There was a report few months ago on (ekurd.net) claiming the Turkish oil company, (general energy) currently operating in KR, is building a pipeline connecting KRG directly to Turkey and bypassing the Iraqi oil export pipelines, this is a very important factor for KRG’s survival to sell its resources when it declares independent from chaotic Iraq.
KRG can also struck a deal with the Sunnis to export some of Kurdistan's oil via their region to Jordan so they can get benefits from the oil as well, since now Al Hashimi taking shelter in Kurdistan and the relation between KRG and the Iraqiya list has recently proved on a scale of more than 70% . this should remain a factor in case Turks might use their pressure cards on a future Kurdish state as they might think they are the only route for Kurdistan oil exports.
Today an article was published on (Aknews) quoting “Kirkuk oil field development requires approval of KRG and Kirkuk’s Provincial Council”. And the article states the structure of Kirkuk’s oil field which consists of 3 structures, Khurmala, Avana and Baba. It also tells us that Khurmala is under direct jurisdiction of KRG, the second structure Avana lies in Makhmour District which is also part of KRG liberated in 2003, in a recent visit there the Pres. Of KRG M. Barzani quoted “ Makhmour is part of KRG and does not fall under the article 140 of the Iraqi constitution” thus only remains the last structure, Baba.
Therefore Kirkuk’s giant oil fields literally 2/3 of it falls under KRG’s control and jurisdictions, its the third oil field (Baba) which is currently under Baghdad’s control even though the Province of Kirkuk unofficially is controlled by KRG as well. But KRG is not happy about the situtation and wants a share of the remaining oil field of (Baba) located in Kirkuk province or at least it wants to have half control over the field, by doing so one could say that KRG has successfully annexed Kirkuk province (probably minus Hawija district) back to Kurdistan region, and the official request from CIA director to Turkish PM proves this as he suggested to the Turkish officials how turkey would be having a good benefit from Kirkuk and Mosul’s oil fields, as most probably the oil will be exported via the pipeline currently the Turkish oil co, general energy is building.
In this case why isn't KRG declaring a state if it has more than 3 quarters of Kirkuk’s giant oil fields and the other discovered oil fields scattered across Kurdistan region totally 45 billion barrels of oil reserve, as many were suggesting ?, many people were suggesting once KRG gets control over the oil fields of Kirkuk it will divorce Iraq, but we can see here that it is not the oil that is currently stopping KRG from making such a step, but it's the land and the people of Kirkuk province which is currently in dispute between Baghdad and Erbil . Also its worth mentioning, in a recent development after Barzanis statement in Newroz, a member of SLC had quoted to a newspaper “If the Kurds think declaring their own state is in best interests then we should sit down and finalize our borders”.
I my opinion KRG should not waste any more time about a national conference which is about to take place on 5th of April but instead it should commence its negotiations with Baghdad officials to finalize and draw the borders with the rest of Arab Iraq.
Only time would tell what can happen in a near future but i remain positive that considering the change the middle east and the region has faced during the last year, a Kurdish state will definitely be announced in 2012.