... but I think you should know...You may wish to wait a little until the dust settles before adding shares to your NATDF position. It's entirely possible share prices will be below $1.50 in July.
Yes, sometimes "they" are right, sometimes not. Another point of view, worth about the same...
Oil has lost nearly one third of its value over the past three months. This
week, the Brent market took a surprising turn, which may indicate that the
market is near a turning point.
On Tuesday, the cost of Brent crude for delivery in the near-term, say in
August, dropped below the cost for delivery, a market condition known as
“contango.” As of Friday morning, Brent for August delivery was trading at
$90.45 a barrel, compared to $90.90 for the October contract.
Brent is the European benchmark; WTI is the U.S. benchmark. WTI today is up
1.3% at $79.21.
This marks a reversal from an extended period of “backwardation” in the Brent
market, according to James Williams, owner of WTRG Economics, an independent
energy research company. Since February 2011, except for a few brief occasions,
Brent has been staying backwardated, where buyers are willing to pay a premium
to have the oil immediately, he said.
“The fact that it is trading in contango through most of 2013 underscores how
weak the fundamentals are,” said Hussein Allidina, head of commodity research at
Morgan Stanley. In a contangoed market, producers are offering discounts for oil
ready for shipment, suggesting subdued demand and ample supply. For now, fears
for supply disruptions that have been plaguing the Brent market seem finally to
Analysts have been closely watching the shift in the Brent curve. If it stays
or widens, it could trigger a series of reactions among market participants.
Refiners will be incentivized to buy crude oil and put it into storage to
capitalize on lower spot prices, while producers will choose to leave the oil in
the ground as they expect to fetch a higher price later.
If Saudi Arabia decides to cut back on its output, it will help absorb the
glut in the market and arrest the falling trend.
I have "enough" NATDF but have had a GTC order in the low $1.30s for some time and would be happy to see it filled