Star Scientific, Inc.

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Msg  2784 of 6513  at  3/9/2012 11:40:38 AM  by

NukeJohn

The following message was updated on 5/4/2012 7:48:23 AM.

Earnings Expectations.....

Folks, don't get all hyped up about earnings....there won't be any in Q4 2011.   In fact, with the ramp up costs of Anatabloc, espenses will likely be higher and losses will probably be > $7.5 M (even though revenues will more than double).

CIGX doesn't have Conference calls, at least they haven't had any I'm aware of (but I hope they will change that policy in the near future).  So, let's hope they give some color in their Press Release when they file the 10-K.   IMHO, CIGX got enough money from the recent execution of warrants to last them until they are cashflow positive, which I think will occur late in Q2 2012.

What we really need to watch is how fast revenues are increasing.  As far as revenues go, here's what I think they will do for Q4 2011, Q1 2012, and Q2 2012 (along with a couple of recent past quarters).

Q2 2011 - 262K (actual Revenues)
Q3 2011 - 401K (actual Revenues)
Q4 2011 - 960K +/- 50K  (my estimated revenue)
Q1 2012 - 1,300K +/- 200K (my revised estimated revenues as of May 1, 2012)
Q2 2012 - 5,950K +/- 600K (my estimated revenues assumes ~2500 GNC retail stores stocked by end of May 2012)  

 If you don't like my numbers....run your own. I used $80/bottle for Star's direct sales and $45/bottle for GNC sales. I used 1.6 bottles per order for orders on Star's website (which I believe is very conservative), as I believe over 6% of Star's website orders are for cases and ~20% of Star's website orders are for multiple bottles of two or more).

FWIW, I think by late Q3 2012, Star will be selling >5000 bottles per day. That assumes about 4400 bottles being sold daily by GNC stores (both GNC's website and retail stores) and about 600 bottles per day on Star's website.  

JMHO,

NJ

 


 

 

 



 
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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
2788 Re: Earnings Expectations..... getupthereboy 5 3/9/2012 1:29:19 PM
2807 Re: Earnings Expectations...../FWIW keahou 2 3/10/2012 8:13:40 PM


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