Wilk

Yes shoulder season comes every year. Its something I knew in June or July. There is something more fundamental going on that explains this decline. Its in my view related to the continuing high production levels given the huge rig decline. I would have thought we would see more discipline especially since NG prices have once again declined well below 3. I also think demand hasnt picked up in response to the recent decline in prices. That in my mind explains the recent weakness. The shoulder season has been discounted before. Remember May when everyone expected storage to reach capacity with prices expected to head to zero.  So to me factors that are known are not the reason for the decline, as they are factored into share values already. We are also in a correction of energy shares right now. It will run its course. whether you hold UPL SWN or not depends entirely on your view of natural gas prices going forward. The market is telling us prices are range bound both short and long term. I just dont buy it and thats why I am in.

Take care

Jim