< E&P Operators which are already setting their 2013 Budgets. >

Unlikely those budgets will include a lot of gas drilling.

imo this is a crucial point. Decisions on increasing drilling activity are not made day to day pending on price in the market but are made lumpily at budget time.

So by time actual physical production drops there could well be a 2 -3 year time lag in getting that production back up again.