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Thanks for your data but using just the Haynesville and drawing macro conclusions is incomplete. I do think the premise of your argument holds true. NG production isn't dropping that rapidly, yet....just slowly easing off the Jan 2012 peak. NG is being saved by a sudden demand surge from generation that began this past spring (the demand surge surprised a lot of people, like me). That's what is eating up the surplus more than any other factor. That means once the NG strip gets into a range that makes it very economical to bring back some coal fired power some (not all) of that demand will be lost.
I'm bullish NG but don't expect a massive spike with any staying power. I'm looking for a run in the 4 to 6 area to restart some dry NG drilling. That level should also bring back some coal fired generation. Probably the best way to play it is undervalued and overlooked NG assets (Can JRs?) AND quality land service plays. The fundamentals for NG drilling should improve moving into this winter and 2013 spring. Buying any weakness in the sector in here could yield LT cap gains as the service cycle plays out through 2013.
