----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


.....NATGAS: With all but one of the actuals in (TGP), modeling points to a 73 BCF injection for Thursdays
.....EIA report. Baseline was 90 BCF, making that 73 BCF projection 17 BCF to-the-bullish.

.....Longer-term model again backs off just a sliver. The modeling is not expected to change much over the
.....next few days, then is expected to trend more bullish.

.....My thoughts on the extreme bullishness of natgas were laid out in yesterdays posts... to built on those
.....thoughts, I want to emphasize that much of my expectations are predicated on the fact (as witnessed
.....by the drilling stats) that natgas is out of favor relative to oil for the first time in decades... and that fact
.....will trump all else as time unfolds (even if we have another mild winter). Only question is whether the
.....bull charges winter-2013 (cold winter), spring-2013 (normal winter), or 2014 (mild winter).

.....North-American fundamentals are built upon a foundation made of the drill-bit and world-LNG-pricing,
.....both of which are highly-inadequate of supporting todays natgas-pricing. Pricing must rise to either the
.....point where it changes E&P thinking (which oil has courted the last couple years), or the US has to
.....bully its way into the world-LNG markets (which are tight already).

.....(Large-scale exporting of US LNG looks rediculous given todays fundamentals.)


.....OIL: Refinery-scheduling is well-off again last week (down 6.2% from the week before ond down ~25% from
.....last springs levels. Uncertain how this plays out for CL tonight and Wednesday, but has to be bullish for
.....products.

....................................Refinery..........Hurricane
...................................Scheduling.....Disruptions
...................Day........... (MMCF)..........(MMCF)
...............09/01/12 (w)......387.................2937
...............09/02/12 (w)......393.................2503
...............09/03/12............410.................1738
...............09/04/12............415.................1309
...............09/05/12............453.................1157
...............09/06/12............468...................958
...............09/07/12............387...................847

...............09/08/12 (w)......396...................635
...............09/09/12 (w)......389...................397
...............09/10/12............379...................275
...............09/11/12............381...................213
...............09/12/12............343.......................0
...............09/13/12............352.......................0
...............09/14/12............343.......................0

...............09/15/12.(w)......365.......................0
...............09/16/12.(w)......345.......................0
...............09/17/12............358.......................0
...............09/18/12............319.......................0
...............09/19/12............323.......................0
...............09/20/12............350.......................0
...............09/21/12............362i......................0

...............09/22/12.(w)......343i......................0
...............09/23/12.(w)......213i......................0
...............09/24/12............213i......................0

...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday)



.....ECONOMICS & POLITICS: The Economics models for some reason did not run last night except for the
.....Food-Group (which remains supportive). A brief look at raw numbers shows the food-group strength
.....continuing to translate into the little expansion just-begun on 9/21.

.....Todays economic (and political) numbers...

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption
...............07/14/12.............123.6.................153.3
...............07/21/12.............122.5.................149.6
...............07/28/12.............121.5.................149.6
...............08/04/12.............121.7.................150.7
...............08/11/12.............121.5.................147.4
...............08/18/12.............121.4.................145.5
...............08/25/12.............121.9.................142.0
...............09/01/12.............122.0.................142.1
...............09/08/12.............121.5.................147.9
...............09/15/12.............121.3.................150.2
...............09/22/12.............121.1.................149.7

.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily
...............Dailies...............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food
...............08/24/12.............121.9.......142.7..........1.857.......31.07......44255
...............08/25/12.............122.0.......142.0..........1.877.......28.67......44255
...............08/26/12.............122.0.......141.4..........1.880.......28.67......45397
...............08/27/12.............121.9.......140.9..........1.867.......30.67......43590.......(RNC Opens night before)
...............08/28/12.............122.0.......140.4..........1.952.......31.14......42851.......(Ann Romney speaks night before)
...............08/29/12.............122.1.......140.0..........2.001.......31.92......41806.......(Paul Ryan speaks night before)
...............08/30/12.............122.0.......140.1..........1.881.......34.34......42176.......(Mitt Romney speaks night before)
...............08/31/12.............122.0.......140.8..........1.896.......35.81......42069
...............09/01/12.............122.0.......142.1..........1.877.......31.98......37486
...............09/02/12.............121.9.......143.2..........1.886.......31.98......36753
...............09/03/12.............121.8.......143.6..........1.884.......31.98......37357
...............09/04/12.............121.7.......144.1..........1.884.......32.07......37376.......(DNC Opens)
...............09/05/12.............121.7.......145.2..........1.927.......32.07......36240.......(Michelle Obama speaks night before)
...............09/06/12.............121.8.......146.4..........1.947.......32.07......36652.......(Bill Clinton speaks night before)
...............09/07/12.............121.7.......147.5..........1.885.......32.07......36464.......(Barack Obama speaks night before)
...............09/08/12.............121.5.......147.9..........1.874.......31.07......35981
...............09/09/12.............121.4.......148.1..........1.859.......31.07......36803
...............09/10/12.............121.2.......148.9..........1.872.......31.07......35996
...............09/11/12.............121.2.......149.0..........1.913.......31.07......38535.......(Middle East protests/violence erupt)
...............09/12/12.............121.2.......148.9..........1.927.......31.62......38962
...............09/13/12.............121.3.......149.3..........1.960.......31.59......39608
...............09/14/12.............121.3.......149.7..........1.918.......31.88......40061
...............09/15/12.............121.3.......150.2..........1.920.......32.68......41299
...............09/16/12.............121.2.......150.3..........1.867.......30.68......41072
...............09/17/12.............121.2.......150.4..........1.907.......32.93......33694
...............09/18/12.............121.0.......150.5..........1.845.......32.68......28614
...............09/19/12.............120.8.......150.1..........1.871.......31.78i.....30053
...............09/20/12.............120.8.......149.6..........1.918i......31.78i.....28631
...............09/21/12.............121.0.......149.4..........1.971i......30.79i.....39416i
...............09/22/12.............121.1.......149.7..........1.932i......33.71i.....38614i
...............09/23/12................n/a...........n/a..............n/a..........n/a........36393i
...............09/24/12................n/a...........n/a..............n/a..........n/a........34602i