I would have expected the CL longs to reduce positions
much more than this
I have noticed that actual injections are running pretty
consistently 30+ to 40+ UNDER Robrey's baselines which seems to
correlate to excess generation demand due to coal to gas
switching (5 to 6 Bcfd )
Robrey suggested that some NG "peakers" are running now and their
peak load function has been replaced by idled coal units which would
lessen the impact on NG demand by summer heat waves.
Even so, I am still expecting full by 11-1 but getting cautiously bullish
for next winter & beyond (That means ~$4 not $5+)
|
|
US |
UK |
UK$-US$ |
|
|
JUN |
$2.55 |
$8.33 |
5.78 |
53.19 |
|
JUL |
$2.61 |
$8.47 |
5.86 |
54.09 |
|
AUG |
$2.66 |
$8.60 |
5.94 |
54.93 |
|
SEP |
$2.70 |
$8.82 |
6.12 |
56.34 |
|
OCT |
$2.77 |
$9.16 |
6.39 |
58.53 |
|
NOV |
$2.98 |
$10.01 |
7.03 |
63.94 |
|
DEC |
$3.26 |
$10.49 |
7.23 |
67.04 |
|
JAN |
$3.41 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
FEB |
$3.43 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
MAR |
$3.40 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
APR |
$3.37 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
MAY |
$3.40 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
JUN |
$3.45 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
JUL |
$3.49 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
AUG |
$3.50 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
SEP |
$3.50 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
OCT |
$3.54 |
$0.00 |
|
|
|
|
05-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| COT update non-commercial options + futures |
|
|
Net Pos |
WOW Chng |
Sentiment |
|
|
CL |
+240,605 |
-8,029 |
less long |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NG |
-113,507 |
-4,961 |
shorter |
|
|
|
this week |
last week |
|
|
|
$ / £ |
1.5654 |
1.5827 |
$ |
higher |
|
|
|
|
|
again |
|
US prices |
lower |
|
|
|
|
UK prices |
lower |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan-13 |
$3.41 |
Jun-13 |
$3.45 |
|
|
Jan-14 |
$4.01 |
Jun-14 |
$3.77 |
|
|
Jan-15 |
$4.28 |
Jun-15 |
$4.01 |
|
|
Jan-16 |
$4.48 |
Jun-16 |
$4.21 |
|
|
Jan-17 |
$4.69 |
Jun-17 |
$4.41 |
|
|
Jan-18 |
$4.89 |
Jun-18 |
$4.60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec-18 |
$5.00 |
first $5 |
|
|
|
Dec-21 |
$5.70 |
no $6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NG Storage Surplus per
Robry |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BCF |
change |
chg/day |
|
|
13-Apr |
853 |
|
|
|
|
20-Apr |
857 |
4 |
0.6 |
|
|
27-Apr |
816 |
-41 |
(5.9) |
|
|
11-May |
734 |
-82 |
(5.9) |
|
|
18-May |
719 |
-15 |
(2.1) |
|
|
25-May |
698 |
-21 |
(3.0) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7 weeks total injection - since Apr 1 -169 YOY |
|
24.1/week or
3.4 Bcfd lower |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
