ECRI Recession Call:
Weekly Leading Index Improves Yet Again
By Doug Short
July 13, 2012
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The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) again rose fractionally, now at 123.2 from last week's 121.9. See the WLI chart below. The WLI growth indicator (WLIg) rose fractionally, now at -2.2 as reported in Friday's public release of the data through July 6, an improvement over the previous week's -2.8 (a slight upward revision from -2.9).
The ECRI numbers (123.24 and -2.23 to two decimal places) came in just below the upper range in yesterday's RecessionAlert shadow estimates, which put the upper estimates at 123.29 and -2.25 for the WLI and WLIg metrics, respectively.
This week Lakshman Achuthan appeared on Bloomberg TV and not only reaffirmed ECRI's recession call; he also made the claim that we're already in recession. See the video below at the 1:10 point.