Astellas is the most obvious choice to make an offer for MDV3100 or simply do a buyout. The price should be almost the same either way unless Dimebon gets lucky. Astellas has a couple incentives that make it the most likely choice. Ist of all it already owns half of MDV3100 and has spent big on recent cancer buyouts. Further a buyout means Astellas gets to keep the hefty milestones that would have been paid to MDVN. The 2009 deal says MDVN is to receive payments of up to $335 million upon the attainment of development and regulatory milestones plus up to an additional $320 million in commercial milestone payments. MDVN has no debt and $180 in the bank. Astellas would probably get in a buyout over $200 million in cash at the present moment since some at MDVN must have cashed in their options for a nice gain. So Astellas gets $800 million in cash and reduced obligations and that may make MDVN look like a steal.
PFE and LLY are the 2 big pharmas getting killed by patent expirations. Lipitor and Zyprexia are huge holes that quickly need filling. PFE is already partnered with MDVN's Dimebon drug so they know MDVN well. LLY has been making a big push into cancer and alz drugs lately. LLY recently had to pull one of its two P3 alz drugs. It might be interested in Dimebon as a lottery alz ticket thrown in with MDV3100 which has a long patent life and is targeted at large growing prostate cancer population. http://www.nature.com/news/blockbuster-drug-bows-out-1.9495