Re: 4 new dry bulkers delivered to the fleet per day vs 1.6 scrapped per day...Dev
I came into the GO world after F7...so I never read one of his posts...
With respect to shipping...It's a world of perfect competition and the shippers do not talk to ALL other shippers around the world who is buying additional ships.
Casualties are mounting. Just last week, Englands oldest shipping company went under, EAGLE bulk (EGLE) is in serious trouble, as well as others who do not have good charters in place. One of the chinese shippers just cancelled an order for 6 Kamsarmaxes.
Shipping is an easy business to get into. All you need is a captains license and access to funds and your one-ship-shipping company is on its way.
GO is a long term play at this point. I do believe that a dividend is possible toward the 3rd or 4th quarter 2013, albeit a small one. But notice something when you go to the GO web-page: None of the big boys are selling their positions, some have increased their holdings of GO. Why???
The CEO and CFO bought additional shares about 3 months ago. Clearly, if they felt there was no hope, do you think they would have thrown their own money away?
We got in at the tail end of a very good shipping cycle. These are long periods. But the longer the pain lasts, the more robust the rebound should be, all other aspects being equal. Right now, capes are below $3000 a day/spot. There will be more shippers that will not be able to survive such rates for an extended period and throw in the towel. As a result, there should be a very lucrative second hand market for the surviving shippers. So we will have fewer companies, but the same number of ships, unless they get scrapped. And we have seen more and more evidence of younger vessels making it to the scrapyard. Shippers have fortunately cut way back on the purchasing of new vessels. Scrapping will continue as the fleet ages every day.
Balance will be restored, but we need to hang in there, or, take a loss and invest our remaining balance in something else. I just can't get myself to do that at this stage. On the other hand: If you have cash for other investments with good prospects, go for it!
But the current situation in shipping will not last, because it is not sustainable. The cycle will repeat itself with the next generation of shippers not having learned their lessons, driving rates up and down again. But by that time neither you nor I will be around to experience the effects of it!