"Sell speculative pharmaceuticals like Dendreon(DNDN_)
. The biggest losers in reform will be companies selling expensive cures directly to doctors, many of whom will lose their power to offer such treatments until they are proven.
Dendreon, for instance, offers Provenge for advanced prostate cancer, shown to improve lifespans by just four months at a cost of $93,000 per treatment. Insurers won't buy that, when their financial incentives are geared to lower per-patient costs.
The global pharmaceutical business has long focused on the U.S. because once a treatment is approved it can be sold directly to doctors. In other advanced countries, the health care system demands that such treatments show themselves to be cost-effective before they will pay. That kind of system is coming here, enforced by private insurers, so if the drug you're backing has a high cost you now have a much-higher hurdle to make sales."